The Katana Programme concluded March with a performance of -22.10%. The initial excitement surrounding the U.S. Crypto Strategic Reserve faded quickly, overshadowed by geopolitical tensions and uncertainty tied to the economic effects of the Trump tariffs. These factors fueled a strong risk-off sentiment across markets, and Bitcoin was no exception. By mid-March, Bitcoin tested lows near $76,000.
Our algorithms established short positions during this downturn. However, these were stopped out as prices retraced into a broad, volatile range. Subsequently, long positions were initiated during the rally, but this upward movement stalled near $89,000. Once again, we were stopped out as Bitcoin retreated to the lower end of its current trading range of $82,000 to $88,000.
The critical question now is what could trigger a decisive breakout from this range. On the bearish side, a significant stock market correction—potentially driven by a deflating AI bubble and recession fears—could push Bitcoin prices as low as $65,000. On the bullish side, identifying a clear catalyst remains challenging. The Trump administration’s inconsistent policy announcements are likely to continue creating uncertainty, impacting Bitcoin with volatility in both directions. For now, uncertainty remains the dominant force in the market. Should a recession eventuate then a return to serious QE by central banks could rekindle the bullish Bitcoin sentiment we experienced early in 2025.
Our hybrid Trend and Momentum program Odachi was -12.97% for the month.
